It is likely to be finalised/ signed into an agreement in June 2015.
The spirit of the preliminary
understanding is “nothing is agreed till everything is agreed”. Though the probability of evaporating this understanding
remains, the chances of conversion of this understanding into a binding
agreement are bright. Give it rating of 60 for going through and 40 not going
through. But the world is going to pay a
very heavy price after conclusion of this pact as danger of wider conflict will amplify,
though Obama will be gone next year.
The critical issue that US has
achieved is this--Apparently Iran has agreed to demolish its nuclear capabilities
of Plutonium/Uranium based enrichment of weapon grade fuel in three places Araak, Fordow and Nanatz. Iran has been in denial
mode so far for existence of these facilities.
The fear is that Iran is in the
habit of hiding more than revealing. If IAEA suspects that something fishing is
going on, sanctions can “snap back”.
Saudis, Israel, Republicans and
powerful Jewish community have been vocally against the agreement. Saudi/Yemen
open war and proxy wars in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon with ISIS backing Sunni -Islam vs
Shia-Islam can be very painful and can expand to other regions as well.
Saudis are openly talking about
hiring Pakistan for nuclear and physical military support. Pakistan is in dire need of money. Overtly or
covertly Pakistan may give in directly or through third countries. Iran will then have to prepare itself for
nuclear deterrence. Unless the Middle East peace is restored, Iran-US agreement
will remain brittle and edgy.
India has to side with Iran
because it wants access to Afghanistan through Iran’s Chabahar port to assist Baluchistan
to fulfil its agenda to keep pressure on Pakistan.India's NSA Mr. Doval has openly talked about assisting Baluchistan.
Fall in crude prices due to
increased supplies from Iran is good for India but that will make Indian agro
exporters more miserable.
On Trade and investment in Iran I
will write separately
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